Fiscal Year 2022 (post-merger) through Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 · Compiled from QuidelOrtho SEC filings and earnings releases
No formal annual guidance was issued at deal close. Bryant raised expectations on the Q3 call as COVID demand ran hot. The year was essentially a tailwind story.
| Metric | Initial Guidance | Mid-Year Update | FY 2022 Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (reported) | None at merger | Raised on Q3 call | $3.27B $4.05B supplemental combined |
Beat |
| Adj EBITDA (supp.) | — | — | $1.54B (40.7% margin) | Beat |
| Adj EPS (supp.) | — | — | $13.80 | Beat |
Bryant set ambitious guidance on February 15, 2023, riding momentum from a record 2022. Guidance was maintained through August and again on the October 12 preliminary release. Revenue landed in range; margins and EPS did not.
| Metric | Initial (Feb 15, 2023) | Maintained (Aug/Oct) | FY 2023 Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | ~$3.0–$3.3B | $2.88–$3.08B | $2.998B | In line (low end) |
| Adj EBITDA | $850M+ | $800–$830M | $723M | Miss ~$77–$107M |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | high-20s% | 26.9–27.7% | 24% | Miss |
| Adj EPS | ~$5.00+ | $4.85–$5.30 | $4.13 | Miss $0.72–$1.17 |
Bryant issued FY2024 guidance on February 13, 2024 with an unusually wide range — already a signal of uncertainty. Eight days later, the board terminated him. New CEO Brian Blaser suspended guidance for two quarters before reinstating at materially lower levels.
| Metric | Initial (Feb 13, 2024) | Q1 Update (May 8) | Reinstated Q3 (Nov 7) | FY 2024 Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.76–$3.07B | SUSPENDED | $2.75–$2.80B | ~$2.78B | Hit reinstated |
| Adj EBITDA | $565–$720M | SUSPENDED | $530–$550M | ~$545M | Original midpoint missed by ~$100M |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 21–24% | SUSPENDED | 19.3–19.6% | ~19.6% | Hit reinstated only |
| Adj EPS | $1.88–$3.60 | SUSPENDED | $1.69–$1.91 | ~$1.85 | Hit reinstated only |
Initial guidance issued February 12, 2025, reaffirmed on the Q2 call, narrowed (midpoint maintained) on the Q3 call. This is the year management actually delivered.
| Metric | Initial (Feb 12, 2025) | Narrowed Q3 (Nov 5) | FY 2025 Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $2.60–$2.81B | $2.68–$2.74B | $2.73B | Hit (above midpoint) |
| Adj EBITDA | $575–$615M | $585–$605M | $597M | Hit (above midpoint) |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 22% | 22% | 22% (+240bps) | Hit |
| Adj EPS | $2.07–$2.57 | Narrowed range | $2.12 | Hit (low end) |
Initial guidance issued February 11, 2026. Two months later, the company pre-announced a Q1 miss. By May 5, full-year guidance was formally lowered.
| Metric | Initial (Feb 11, 2026) | Apr 15 Update | Lowered Q1 (May 5) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | ~$2.81–$2.90B (implied) | "Low end achievable" | $2.70–$2.75B | Cut midpoint by ~$100M+ |
| Adj EBITDA | ~$640M+ (23.1% margin) | "Low end achievable" | $615–$630M | Cut |
| Adj EBITDA Margin | 23.1% | — | 17.5% Q1 / ~22.7% FY | Compressed in Q1 |
| Adj EPS | ~$2.20+ | — | $1.80–$2.00 | Cut |
| Free Cash Flow | Higher | — | $100–$120M | Cut |
QuidelOrtho's guidance has been reliable exactly once in five fiscal years as a combined company. The 2025 hit was a real accomplishment, but it came after starting with a wide $2.60–$2.81B revenue range — a $210M spread that allowed considerable room to land somewhere acceptable. The 2026 initial range gave less room, and the company couldn't deliver even one quarter into the year.
The right question for evaluating the turnaround thesis: does the Q1 2026 miss look more like 2023 (early signal of structural problems) or like a one-quarter weather/geopolitical issue that the cost program and 96% recurring revenue base will absorb?
The next two earnings reports — Q2 2026 in early August, Q3 2026 in early November — are the credibility test. Hitting the lowered 2026 guidance ($2.70–$2.75B revenue, $615–$630M EBITDA) would make 2025 part of a two-of-three pattern of improving execution. Another cut would reinforce the 2023–2024 pattern, and the discount to peers becomes structurally harder to close.
Note: The lowered FY2026 EBITDA midpoint of $622M is still higher than FY2025's $597M actual, so the "margin expansion continues" narrative is technically intact — just on a flatter slope than what investors were sold three months ago.