Research & Insights.

A collection of analysis on financial markets, investment strategy, and personal finance topics — combining rigorous data analysis with practical, actionable insight.

Jun
2026
Equity Research

Boeing 777X — certification delays, financial risk & outlook.

A comprehensive analysis of the 777X program's regulatory bottlenecks, mounting write-down risk, and Boeing's narrowbody-led recovery thesis heading into 2H 2026. A reading of where the FAA queue actually sits, what the accumulated program losses imply for further charges, and how the rest of the portfolio is offsetting the widebody overhang.

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May
2026
Ownership Intelligence

COUR — Insight's sell-down vs. the $500M buyback.

Insight Partners held roughly 29.6M COUR shares at merger close on May 11. In under three weeks they've crossed below 10% — the Section 16 reporting threshold — selling into a declining stock and leaving a structural overhang. A reading of the supply pressure, the company's $500M buyback authorization that partially offsets it, and what each side of that math is actually doing to the price.

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May
2026
ETF Research

TLTW — the story depends on the timeframe.

Since-inception, the covered-call ETF has lost 43% of its price. Since September 2023 — once the 2022 rate spike is behind you — total returns are positive 9.8%. The same fund, the same monthly data, three different stories depending on which window you read. A reading of when the strategy works, when it doesn't, and what an investor entering today should actually expect.

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May
2026
Ownership Intelligence

Coursera × Udemy — the combined cap table.

The all-stock merger closed May 11, 2026 at a 0.800× exchange ratio, creating a ~$2.5B online-learning entity. A synthesis of 13G/13D filings, Form 3/4 disclosures, the S-4 proxy, and the May 18 Insight Partners sale — mapping who owns the combined company and what the $500M buyback authorization means for the float.

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May
2026
Equity Research

QuidelOrtho — the 120% problem.

Ninety-four 13F filers hold the equivalent of 120% of QDEL's shares outstanding — a 13.5M-share over-reporting gap that maps almost exactly onto the short interest. The May 2026 snapshot, the securities-lending economics that explain the gap, and the full holder-by-holder cap table.

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May
2026
Video Briefing · YouTube

AI — the capital cascade.

A video walk-through of the AI Supercycle research — five hyperscalers, $775 billion in 2026 capex, a memory oligopoly rationing supply, and the sustainability question. The companion analysis to the written piece, in moving form.

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May
2026
Infrastructure Supercycle

The AI Supercycle — capex, memory & the sustainability question.

Five hyperscalers will spend roughly $775 billion in 2026 — nearly doubling 2025's record. A memory-chip oligopoly is rationing supply. End-user ROI lags badly behind capex. Reading whether this is a demand-led boom or a supply-driven mirage — and the three constraints money cannot solve.

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May
2026
Economics Series

Inflation Explained — who actually pays the price?

A step-by-step guide to inflation, from the basic mechanics to why the headline CPI number understates what's really happening at the bottom of the income distribution. Six chapters on measurement, distributional impact, and the four ways official inflation systematically undercounts the cost-of-living squeeze on the poor.

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May
2026
Macro Briefing

The US Debt Picture — $80 trillion across three buckets.

Roughly 2.7× annual economic output, owed across government, business, and households. A reading of the largest borrower on earth, the engines of business capital, and what the household debt picture actually looks like below the headline number.

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May
2026
Equity Research

QuidelOrtho — guidance vs. actuals.

Five fiscal years of guidance against what actually happened. From the COVID sugar high through the CEO transition to the May 5 reset — every guide issued, every mid-year revision, every miss. The pattern that emerges is the story.

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May
2026
Diagnostic Briefing

The K-Shaped Chasm — navigating the 2026 market fracture.

The S&P 500 is up 205% since 2020. Consumer sentiment hit 47.6 — the lowest reading on record. A synthesis of Fed stability data, CapEx shifts, and sector breadth, reading the widest disconnect between asset prices and lived reality in modern US history.

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May
2026
Software Economics

Custom Accounting Software — the solo operator question.

AI coding assistants have collapsed the technical floor for building software. The arithmetic of a senior operator's time has not. A viability assessment of the build-it-yourself accounting stack — for personal use, a vertical-SaaS venture, or neither.

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May
2026
Equity Research

QuidelOrtho — institutional ownership tracker.

The proxy is filed; the Schedule 13Gs followed. T. Rowe halved its position, Fidelity bulked up to 11.5%, Newtyn accumulated through the drawdown. A reading of QDEL's cap table across the past three quarters, with cost basis estimates and live mark-to-market.

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April
2026
Equity Research

QuidelOrtho — the holder rotation thesis.

The fundamentals declined ~33% from peak. The stock declined ~95%. The gap is who owns it now — and what it would take to bring the long-only money back. An interactive look at QDEL's cap table, the reflexive trap, and the May 5 catalyst.

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April
2026
Strategic Analysis

Building a $2.5B diagnostics company — three paths.

Greenfield, roll-up, hybrid — the capital, timeline, and probability of success across every viable way to assemble a QDEL-scope IVD franchise. The honest answer to "how do I build this" turns out to be "you almost certainly don't."

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April
2026
Competitive Analysis

QuidelOrtho competitive position — franchise by franchise.

The instinctive comparison — QDEL vs. Roche — hides the real strategic picture. Reading QuidelOrtho's four franchises individually reveals one to lean into, one to defend, one to harvest, and one to selectively attack. Letter grades for each.

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March
2026
Market Analyst Report

U.S. Residential Real Estate — the 350-home rule.

Analysis of the Institutional Investor Restriction Act and its impact on SFR, BTR, apartments, and REITs. Why the bill paradoxically raises rents — and which apartment REITs are best positioned to benefit.

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2026
Personal Finance Guide

Self-Directed IRA — take control.

Self-directed IRAs let investors hold real estate, precious metals, private equity, cryptocurrency, and more in a tax-advantaged account. A practical guide to how they work, custodian selection, and the rules that trip up most first-time users.

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More research forthcoming.